DOC-04 RAIDD
RAIDD
Risks, assumptions, issues, decisions and dependencies, with owners.
Risks
v0.1 draft | 10 November 2026
Post Automation Utopia programme | Owner: PMO Lead
Each risk has one owner. Score is likelihood multiplied by impact. The rating follows the thresholds on the Key tab.
| ID | Risk | Cause and effect | Likelihood (1 to 5) | Impact (1 to 5) | Score | Rating | Response | Owner | Related plan steps | Status | Date raised |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R-01 | Automation moves at a different pace from the scenarios | Automation arrives much faster, so that people lose income before floors exist, or much slower, so that the cost of floors outruns the dividend. | 4 | 4 | 16 | Red | Plan against slow, central and fast scenarios. Use observatory data to set phase timing. Design contingency income support in Phase 0. | Economic Security Lead | P0-05, P1-02 | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| R-02 | Political mandate is not won or is lost | Governments decline to adopt the plan, or reverse adoption after a change of government. | 4 | 5 | 20 | Red | Build broad coalitions and cross-party support. Use pilot evidence. Put entitlements into law so they are hard to reverse. | Engagement and Legitimacy Lead | P0-07, P2-01 | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| R-03 | Ownership of automated capital concentrates | A few firms or countries own most automated capital, so the dividend available to share is small. | 4 | 4 | 16 | Red | Design public and shared ownership models, competition policy and international transfers. | Economic Security Lead | P1-05, P2-02 | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| R-04 | Inequality between countries widens | Lower-income countries fall further behind because the gains accrue where the capital is owned. | 4 | 4 | 16 | Red | Just transition finance facility, global income support and technology transfer. | International financial institutions | P1-10, P2-05 | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| R-05 | Fiscal or monetary instability | Large transfers cause inflation, capital flight or debt stress. | 3 | 4 | 12 | Amber | Introduce floors in stages. Involve central banks in the design. Size transfers against real productive capacity. | Central banks | P0-05, P2-01 | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| R-06 | Automated systems are unsafe or unaccountable | Automated systems cause harm at scale or operate without meaningful human control. | 3 | 5 | 15 | Red | Put the safety and accountability regime in place before scaling. Certify systems. Keep human oversight of decisions about rights. | Automation and AI Governance Lead | P1-03, P2-09 | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| R-07 | Automation pushes ecological limits further | The energy, water and mineral demand of automation adds pressure on planetary boundaries that are already crossed. | 4 | 4 | 16 | Red | Set a planetary footprint budget. Require circular hardware. Give proxy panels a formal say on high-impact deployments. | Planetary Stewardship Lead | P1-09, P2-08 | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| R-08 | People lose purpose and social ties | Without paid work, people lose meaning, status and community. | 3 | 4 | 12 | Amber | Deliver the purpose, learning and participation pillar. Recognise contribution. Fund local institutions. | Purpose, Learning and Participation Lead | P1-08, P3-06 | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| R-09 | Housing delivery is held up | Land, planning and materials limit the homes for everyone target. | 4 | 3 | 12 | Amber | Appraise land reform options. Retrofit first. Use automated construction. Build local delivery capacity. | Regional and local governments | P1-07, P2-04 | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| R-10 | Payment and identity systems are used for surveillance | Payment and identity systems are used to monitor or exclude people. | 3 | 4 | 12 | Amber | Privacy by design, no mandatory biometrics and independent data oversight. | Design Authority Lead | P1-11 | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| R-11 | Proxy representation is not seen as legitimate | The proxies for animals, plants and ecosystems are captured by other interests, contested or ignored. | 3 | 3 | 9 | Amber | Publish the proxy method. Apply conflict-of-interest rules. Rotate panel members. Include Indigenous knowledge holders. | Planetary Stewardship Lead | P0-03, P1-09 | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| R-12 | Industry resists the dividend | Owners of automated capital resist dividend or tax measures. | 4 | 3 | 12 | Amber | Engage industry early. Offer stable rules. Develop shared-benefit models. | Engagement and Legitimacy Lead | P1-05, P2-06 | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| R-13 | The programme loses continuity | Over several decades the programme loses focus, funding or leadership. | 4 | 3 | 12 | Amber | Use phase gates and independent assurance. Vest ownership in institutions, not individuals. Refresh the plan periodically. | Programme Director | X-01, X-02 | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| R-14 | Geopolitical division blocks the compact | Conflict or rivalry between states prevents an international compact. | 3 | 4 | 12 | Amber | Start with a coalition of willing states. Keep the compact open to later accession. Use regional routes. | Legal and Policy Lead | P1-01 | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| R-15 | The transition harms vulnerable groups | Older people, disabled people or people on low incomes lose out while systems change. | 3 | 4 | 12 | Amber | Apply no-detriment protection, equality impact assessments and supplements for additional needs. | Basic Services Lead | P2-01, P3-02 | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| R-16 | Requirements of different user groups conflict | Human requirements such as housing and energy conflict with the requirements of non-human users, and are settled in favour of the group with a voice. | 4 | 3 | 12 | Amber | Treat ecological Must requirements as constraints. The Design Authority arbitrates with proxy panel input. Log each conflict. | Design Authority Lead | P0-08 | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
Assumptions
v0.1 draft | 10 November 2026
Post Automation Utopia programme | Owner: PMO Lead
What the plan takes to be true, and how each assumption will be tested.
| ID | Assumption | Area | How it will be tested | Owner | Related plan steps | Status | Date logged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A-01 | Automation will in time be able to perform substantially all paid tasks, though the pace is uncertain. | Programme premise | Check against observatory data every year. | Economic Security Lead | P1-02 | Untested | 10 Nov 2026 |
| A-02 | Productivity gains from automation are large enough to fund adequate floors once a share is captured. | Fiscal design | Test in Phase 0 modelling and Phase 1 pilots. | Economic Security Lead | P0-05 | Untested | 10 Nov 2026 |
| A-03 | Enough states will join a coalition to make a compact viable. | Legal pathway | Test in the legal and treaty pathway work. | Legal and Policy Lead | P0-09 | Untested | 10 Nov 2026 |
| A-04 | The mandates of existing UN bodies, central banks and international financial institutions can be extended, so no new global organisation is needed. | Institutional design | Confirm in the legal and treaty pathway work. | Legal and Policy Lead | P0-09 | Untested | 10 Nov 2026 |
| A-05 | Human proxies can represent non-human users credibly enough for decisions to rest on their advice. | Requirements | Test the proxy method in the global consultation. | Planetary Stewardship Lead | P0-07 | Untested | 10 Nov 2026 |
| A-06 | Automated construction can cut the cost and time of housing delivery substantially. | Housing | Test in the housing pilots. | Basic Services Lead | P1-07 | Untested | 10 Nov 2026 |
| A-07 | Evidence from pilots will transfer between economies and cultures with adaptation. | Evaluation | Choose varied pilot sites and evaluate transferability explicitly. | Benefits and Assurance Lead | P1-04 | Untested | 10 Nov 2026 |
| A-08 | Phase 0 can be resourced by the sponsoring institutions without creating a new legal entity. | Mobilisation | Confirm at mobilisation. | Sponsor | P0-01 | Untested | 10 Nov 2026 |
| A-09 | Timelines and effort at v0.1 are indicative and relative. Nothing has been costed. | Planning | Replace with a costed plan in the Phase 1 business case. | Programme Director | P0-10, P0-11 | Untested | 10 Nov 2026 |
| A-10 | Digital access can be made near-universal, with non-digital routes kept for people who need them. | Services | Test in the digital public infrastructure work. | Design Authority Lead | P1-11 | Untested | 10 Nov 2026 |
Issues
v0.1 draft | 10 November 2026
Post Automation Utopia programme | Owner: PMO Lead
Things that are already true and need action.
| ID | Issue | Priority | Action | Owner | Related plan steps | Status | Date raised |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I-01 | No sponsor or funding is confirmed for the programme. | High | Identify sponsoring institutions and secure the resources for Phase 0. | Sponsor | P0-01 | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| I-02 | Displacement from automation and AI is already under way before any income floor exists. | High | Use existing social protection as a bridge. Give priority to the observatory and the pilots. | Economic Security Lead | P1-02, P1-04 | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| I-03 | Seven of the nine planetary boundaries are already assessed as crossed. | High | Treat ecological requirements as constraints on every pillar. | Planetary Stewardship Lead | P1-09 | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| I-04 | There is no agreed international definition of an adequate income floor. | Medium | Commission work on an adequacy benchmark as part of the evidence review. | Design Authority Lead | P0-04 | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| I-05 | Almost half of the world's people have no social protection, so many countries start without delivery systems. | High | Build delivery capacity through the just transition finance facility. | International financial institutions | P1-10 | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| I-06 | The requirements of non-human users have been written on their behalf and are not yet validated by the proxy bodies. | Medium | Validate with the proxies during the global consultation. | Planetary Stewardship Lead | P0-07, P0-08 | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
Decisions
v0.1 draft | 10 November 2026
Post Automation Utopia programme | Owner: PMO Lead
Decisions taken so far, and decisions the programme still has to take.
| ID | Decision | Status | Decision maker | Date decided | To be decided in step | Owner | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D-01 | The Plan, RAIDD, RACI and PID cover the real-world transition programme, phased over decades, with finalising the plan as its opening phase. | Agreed | Sponsor | 10 Nov 2026 | Programme Director | Set in the project brief. | |
| D-02 | Owners are generic programme roles and institution types, never named people. One set of role names is used in every document. | Agreed | Sponsor | 10 Nov 2026 | PMO Lead | Set in the project brief. | |
| D-03 | The scope is global. Documents are in UK English and written as a serious real-world proposal. | Agreed | Sponsor | 10 Nov 2026 | Programme Director | Set in the project brief. | |
| D-04 | Timelines and effort are indicative and sized relatively (S, M, L, XL). They are not costed. | Agreed | Sponsor | 10 Nov 2026 | Programme Director | Set in the project brief. | |
| D-05 | Documents are Google Docs and Google Sheets held in the programme folder and listed in the Control register. | Agreed | Sponsor | 10 Nov 2026 | PMO Lead | Set in the project brief. | |
| D-06 | Animals, plants and ecosystems are treated as users. Their requirements are written on their behalf, each with a named human proxy as the source. | Agreed | Sponsor | 10 Nov 2026 | Planetary Stewardship Lead | Set in the project brief. | |
| D-07 | The programme has five phases: Phase 0 Finalise the plan (2027 to mid 2028), Phase 1 Foundations and pilots (to 2032), Phase 2 Scale national floors (to 2040), Phase 3 Transition at scale (to 2055) and Phase 4 Stewardship. | Proposed | Programme Board | P0-02 | Programme Director | Recommended in this draft. | |
| D-08 | The programme uses the 23 roles in the RACI: six governance roles, seven workstream leads and ten types of delivery institution. | Proposed | Programme Board | P0-02 | PMO Lead | Recommended in this draft. | |
| D-09 | What mix of an unconditional cash floor and universal basic services gives income security. | Open | Programme Board | P0-06 | Design Authority Lead | This draft assumes both will be needed. | |
| D-10 | Whether the programme is governed by a coalition of adopting states hosted by UN bodies, or by a new organisation. | Open | Programme Board | P0-09 | Legal and Policy Lead | This draft assumes a coalition hosted by UN bodies. | |
| D-11 | How the proxies for non-human users are appointed, and how conflicts of interest are handled. | Open | Programme Board | P0-03 | Planetary Stewardship Lead | A proposed method is in the User Requirements Document. | |
| D-12 | How the returns from automated capital are captured: tax, public ownership, voluntary commitments by firms, or a combination. | Open | Programme Board | P0-06 | Economic Security Lead | Design work continues in P1-05. |
Dependencies
v0.1 draft | 10 November 2026
Post Automation Utopia programme | Owner: PMO Lead
What the programme needs from others, what its parts need from each other, and what others need from it.
| ID | Dependency | Type | Provided by | Needed for (plan steps) | Owner | Status | Date logged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DP-01 | National governments willing to host pilots and to legislate income floors. | Inbound | National governments | P1-04, P2-01 | Sponsor | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| DP-02 | UN bodies willing to convene the compact and host its secretariat. | Inbound | UN bodies | P1-01 | Legal and Policy Lead | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| DP-03 | Central banks advising on monetary effects and stewarding public wealth funds where they have a mandate. | Inbound | Central banks | P1-05, P2-02 | Economic Security Lead | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| DP-04 | Industry supplying data on automation deployment to the observatory. | Inbound | Industry | P1-02 | Automation and AI Governance Lead | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| DP-05 | Conservation science bodies acting as proxies for wild animals, plants, fungi and ecosystems. | Inbound | Conservation science bodies | P0-07, P1-09 | Planetary Stewardship Lead | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| DP-06 | Indigenous peoples' organisations taking part, and giving or withholding consent. | Inbound | Indigenous peoples' organisations | P0-07, P1-09 | Engagement and Legitimacy Lead | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| DP-07 | Academia and research institutes providing evidence, modelling and independent evaluation. | Inbound | Academia and research institutes | P0-04, P0-05, P1-12 | Design Authority Lead | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| DP-08 | International financial institutions running the just transition finance facility and global transfers. | Inbound | International financial institutions | P1-10, P2-05 | Economic Security Lead | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| DP-09 | Final requirements depend on the results of the global consultation and the options appraisal. | Internal | Engagement and Legitimacy Lead | P0-08 | Design Authority Lead | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| DP-10 | Scale-up in Phase 2 depends on the Phase 1 evaluation and gate decision. | Internal | Benefits and Assurance Lead | P2-01, P2-03, P2-04 | Programme Director | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
| DP-11 | Existing global frameworks (the Sustainable Development Goals, the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework and the Paris Agreement) rely on the programme staying consistent with them. | Outbound | Legal and Policy Lead | X-04 | Legal and Policy Lead | Open | 10 Nov 2026 |
Key
Post Automation Utopia programme | v0.1 draft | 10 November 2026 | Owner: PMO Lead
Rating thresholds, scoring scales, list values and a count of what the log holds.
Risk rating thresholds
| Rating | Score at or above |
|---|---|
| Red | 15 |
| Amber | 8 |
| Blue values are inputs. Change a threshold and the ratings on the Risks tab follow. Lower scores are Green. Source: recommended at v0.1, to be agreed with the tolerances in step P0-02. |
Scoring scales
| Score | Likelihood | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rare. Not expected during the programme. | Minor. Absorbed within one workstream. |
| 2 | Unlikely. Could happen, but would be a surprise. | Moderate. Delays or weakens one workstream. |
| 3 | Possible. About as likely as not during a phase. | Serious. Delays a phase or weakens a pillar. |
| 4 | Likely. Expected during a phase unless action is taken. | Major. A pillar fails in many countries, or a phase is put back by years. |
| 5 | Almost certain. Already happening or expected soon. | Severe. Lasting harm to people or ecosystems, or the programme fails. |
| Score is likelihood multiplied by impact, from 1 to 25. |
List values
| Risk status | Assumption status | Issue status | Issue priority | Decision status | Dependency status | Dependency type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open | Untested | Open | High | Agreed | Open | Inbound |
| Closed | Confirmed | Resolved | Medium | Proposed | Agreed | Internal |
| Disproved | Low | Open | Met | Outbound | ||
| Inbound: the programme needs something from outside. Internal: one part of the programme needs another. Outbound: others rely on the programme. |
What the log holds
| Item | Count |
|---|---|
| Risks | 16 |
| Risks rated Red | 6 |
| Risks rated Amber | 10 |
| Risks rated Green | 0 |
| Assumptions | 10 |
| Issues | 6 |
| Decisions | 12 |
| Decisions agreed | 6 |
| Decisions proposed | 2 |
| Decisions open | 4 |
| Dependencies | 11 |